The It'll-Get-Worse-Before-It-Gets-Better Fallacy

A cunning way to make predictions unfalsifiable — whatever happens, the forecaster looks right. If things improve, the treatment worked. If they worsen, 'just as predicted.'

• Consultants who say a company's painful restructuring will deliver results 'in 18 months' — if it fails, they say the process just needs more time.
• Doctors who say symptoms may worsen before medication kicks in — a claim that can never be proven wrong.
• Politicians warning that reform will be painful before the benefits arrive — permanently shielding themselves from accountability.