Outcome Bias

We judge the quality of a decision based on its outcome rather than on the quality of the reasoning at the time it was made. Good outcomes make bad decisions look smart.

• A surgeon performs a risky but medically correct operation and the patient dies — the decision is condemned, even though it was right given the information available.
• A reckless driver speeds repeatedly and arrives safely — we call him skilled. Until the day the outcome is a crash.
• An investor bets everything on one stock and wins — called a visionary. The same process, a different random outcome, and he'd be called reckless.