Neglect of Probability

We respond to the mere possibility of something happening — not its actual probability. Both tiny risks and tiny chances of reward are either ignored entirely or wildly overweighted.

• After 9/11, millions of Americans switched from flying to driving — causing thousands of additional road deaths, while aviation deaths remained near zero.
• Parents become terrified of playground stranger abductions (extremely rare) while barely considering car travel (statistically vastly more dangerous).
• Lottery players respond to the existence of a jackpot without rationally processing that a one-in-fourteen-million chance is functionally zero.