Induction

We use inductive reasoning to build general rules from specific observations — but past patterns provide no logical guarantee of future outcomes, making induction a dangerous foundation for certainty.

• A turkey fed every morning for 1,000 days concludes with confidence that the farmer will always feed it — until Thanksgiving.
• Nassim Taleb's black swan: every swan observed in Europe was white, building unshakeable certainty that all swans were white — until Australia.
• Investors who see a fund outperform for ten years conclude it will continue — without recognizing that a long lucky run is statistically guaranteed to occur for some funds.