Illusion of Control

We believe we can influence outcomes that are actually determined by chance. This illusion creates dangerous overconfidence and misattribution of causes.

• Gamblers blow on dice, press elevator buttons repeatedly, or choose 'lucky' slot machines — as if rituals affect random outcomes.
• Stock traders feel their constant monitoring and active management gives them more control over returns than the market actually allows.
• CEOs genuinely believe their decisions drive stock price — when research shows external factors explain most of the variance.