Hindsight Bias

After an event, we believe we predicted it all along. We unconsciously rewrite our memories to make ourselves appear smarter and better-informed than we were.

• After the 2008 financial crisis, nearly everyone claimed they 'saw it coming' — yet almost no one acted on that supposed foresight beforehand.
• After a sports team wins, fans say 'I knew they would win' — though they felt genuine uncertainty during the match.
• Dobelli recommends keeping a diary specifically to catch yourself rewriting history — written predictions expose the gap between what you actually thought and what you remember thinking.