Forecast Illusion

Economic, political, and business forecasters are systematically and consistently wrong — yet we continue to seek out and trust forecasts as if they had predictive value.

• Stock market forecasts from major investment banks are barely better than random chance over a 12-month horizon.
• Philip Tetlock's decades-long study found that expert political predictions were no more accurate than predictions made by random laypeople.
• Weather forecasts beyond five days have accuracy no better than simply predicting the seasonal average — yet forecasters present ten-day outlooks with apparent precision.