Fallacy of the Single Cause

We search for a single cause for complex phenomena — and find a scapegoat to blame — when real events almost always have multiple interacting causes.

• A plane crashes and the investigation produces one cause — but aviation accidents virtually always involve a chain of at least five to seven contributing failures.
• Economic crises are blamed on a single actor or a single policy failure — ignoring the systemic, distributed nature of financial collapse.
• We blame a CEO for a company's failure when the causes are a combination of industry disruption, poor board decisions, market timing, and organizational culture.