Chapter 24
Coincidence
We are poor judges of coincidence — we see profound meaning in statistically inevitable random events, and attribute significance where none exists.
Examples
- In a room of just 23 people, there is a 50% probability two share a birthday — people find this shocking, yet it is mathematically expected.
- Dreams that 'come true': the vast majority of dreams are forgotten immediately; the rare match with reality is preserved and remembered as prophetic.
- You think of an old friend, and they call that evening — ignoring the hundreds of times you thought of someone and they didn't call.