Availability Bias

We judge the likelihood of events based on how easily examples come to mind — not on actual statistics. Vivid, recent, or dramatic events feel more probable than they are.

• After a plane crash dominates the news, people fear flying — while continuing to drive, which is statistically far more dangerous.
• Shark attacks get massive media coverage, causing people to wildly overestimate their frequency.
• After hearing about a neighbor's house being burgled, we overestimate local crime rates dramatically.