Alternative Paths

We judge outcomes by the path that actually occurred, ignoring the vast range of equally plausible paths that could have happened. Luck becomes invisible; skill gets all the credit.

• A reckless driver who never had an accident appears to be a good driver — all the alternative paths in which he crashes are invisible.
• A CEO who gambled the company on one product and won is celebrated as visionary — the equally probable paths where the bet failed are never mentioned.
• Winning Russian roulette once does not validate the decision to play. The process was always terrible; the outcome was lucky.