Affect Heuristic

We use our emotional state as a shortcut for complex judgments about risk and benefit — if something feels good, we rate its risks as low and its benefits as high, and vice versa.

• Nuclear power: people who feel afraid of it rate its risks as high and its benefits as low — regardless of the statistics.
• An investment opportunity presented by an enthusiastic, likeable person feels less risky than an identical opportunity from a cold or nervous presenter.
• People rate activities they enjoy (skiing, motorcycling) as both lower risk and higher benefit than those who dislike those activities — feeling drives the risk-benefit calculation, not analysis.